Professor Jamie Druckman
Quantitative Analysis in Political Science
This course serves as an introduction to quantitative (empirical) research techniques. Students will learn how to conduct quantitative social science research and how to be critical consumers of such research.
Organization
The class meets on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 9:30am-10:45am. The Tuesday classes will meet in 330 Blegen Hall. These classes will be devoted to lecture and discussion. The Thursday classes will meet in 50 Hubert H. Humphrey Center. These classes will include some lecture and discussion as well as computer use.
My office hours are Monday 1:00pm-2:15pm and Thursday 11:00am-12:15pm, or by appointment in room 1468 of the Social Sciences Building. I also am regularly available on e-mail at druckman@polisci.umn.edu. Emily Clough is the teaching assistant for the class, and also will be available to answer questions. Her office hours are Tuesday 11:00am-12:00pm and Wednesday 3:30pm-5:00pm in room 1273 of the Social Sciences Building. Her e-mail is eclough@polisci.umn.edu.
Readings
There are four required textbooks for the course. In addition, there will be periodic articles that you will receive in class. The textbooks are:
Moore, David S. 1996. Statistics: Concepts and Controversies, 4th Edition. New York: W.H. Freeman.
Shively, W. Phillips. 1998. The Craft of Political Research, 4th Edition. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.
Huff, Darrell. 1954. How to Lie with Statistics. New York: WW Norton.
Anagnoson, J. Theodore, and Richard E. Deleon. 1996. StataQuest 4. Belmont, CA: Duxbury.
Assignments
There are four assignments:
- A data project. Each student will design and implement an original research project that involves collecting, analyzing, and reporting social science data. Results of the research will be reported in six short papers, culminating in an 8-15 page final paper (due May 8). Details are provided on a separate webpage.
- An editorial. Find an example of an incorrect (or incomplete) use of statistics in the media (e.g., a newspaper article). Explain why it is incorrect (or incomplete) and what should be done to remedy the problem(s). Elaborate on what an ideal study would look like. Feel free to include multiple examples. (Approximately 1-2 pages.) You should read Huff's entertaining little book before engaging in this assignment (due April 6).
- A midterm exam (March 21).
- Presentation. Each student will briefly present the data project (and the editorial if so desired), and then answer audience questions. Presentations should last between 5 and 10 minutes (April 13, 18, 25, May 2).
Grades:
Your grade will be derived from the four assignments and class participation. Specifically, the data project will be worth 40% of your grade, the editorial will be worth 20%, the midterm exam will be worth 20%, your presentation will be worth 15%, and participation will be worth 5%. Your participation score will be based on your attendance for class activities (especially attendance at student presentations) and your contribution to class discussions.
January 18 Introduction
January 20 Junk Science Video
Shively Chapter 1
"The Numbers Game," Newsweek July 25, 1994.
January 25 The Scientific Method, Causation, and Generalization
Shively Chapter 2
"Latte Lightweights: When a Powerful Country Starts Drinking Good Java, Down Goes the Empire," Time December 6, 1999.
"Study Questions Gene Influence on Male Homosexuality," New York Times April 23, 1999.
"Political Storm Swirls Over Psychology Journal Article on Child Sex Abuse," San Diego Union-Tribune June 24, 1999.
January 27 Experiments
Moore pages 94-132
Shively pages 71-84
"4th Grader Challenges Alternative Therapy," New York Times April 1, 1998.
"Can An Essay a Day Keep Asthma or Arthritis at Bay?" New York Times April 14, 1999.
February 1 Experiments (cont.) (Obedience Video)
Moore pages 78-82, 132-156
"A Pirandellian Prison," New York Times Magazine April 8, 1973.
February 3 Sampling
Moore pages 3-35, 43-78
"Presidential Candidates Storm Iowa," Minneapolis Star Tribune August 14, 1999.
"In Blow to Democrats, Court Says Census Must Be by Actual Count," New York Times January 26, 1999.
"Politics and The Census," Newsweek February 8, 1999.
"Pollsters Fret Over Internet Surveys, Public Nonresponse," San Diego Union Tribune May 20, 1999.
February 8 Measurement
Moore Chapter 3
Shively Chapters 4-5 (skim)
"Pollster Finds Error on Holocaust Doubts," New York Times May 20, 1994.
"Behind the SAT," Newsweek September 6, 1999.
February 10 Measurement (cont.) and Lab (participate in an on-line study at http://pcl.stanford.edu/participate/)
February 15 Displaying Data and Descriptive Statistics for a Single Variable
Moore pages 201-236
"Alcohol Use on Rise at University," The Minnesota Daily October 15, 1999.
February 17 Descriptive Statistics for a Single Variable (cont.) and Lab
Moore pages 236-259
February 22 No Class
February 24 Probability, Sampling Distributions, and the Normal Distribution
Moore pages 402-426, 438-446, 259-277
"Rethinking Thinking," The Economist December 18, 1999.
February 29 Confidence Statements
Moore pages 35-43, 457-482
"New Rules Set for Presidential Debates in Fall," New York Times January 7, 2000.
March 2 Confidence Statements (cont.) and Lab
Moore pages 483-511
"The Insignificance of Statistical Significance," by Donald McCloskey.
March 7 Displaying Data Comparing Two Variables: Two-Way Tables and Scatterplots
Moore 284-306
"How Hard Was It In 1973 For Women To Get Into Berkeley?" from Wonnacott and Wonnacott, Introductory Statistics For Business and Economics.
March 9 Lab
March 14 Correlation and Regression
Moore 306-343
March 16 Catch-Up and Review
March 21 Midterm
March 23 Discussion: How Statistics Affect the Political Process
Verba, Sidney. 1996. "The Citizen as Respondent: Sample Surveys and American Democracy." American Political Science Review 90: 1-7.
March 28 Spring Break
March 30 Spring Break
April 4 Regression (cont.)
Moore 343-350
Shively Chapter 7-8
"Study: Hubs help NWA Passengers," Minneapolis Star Tribune, September 25, 1999.
April 6 Lab
April 11 Political Science Applications (Regression)
Kernell, Samuel. 1978. "Explaining Presidential Popularity." American Political Science Review 72: 506-522.
And
Pages 63-65 from Iyengar and Kinder. 1987. News That Matters: Television and American Opinion. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Or
Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. "Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946-86." American Political Science Review 83: 775-793.
Or
Warwick, Paul. 1992. "Ideological Diversity and Government Survival in Western European Parliamentary Democracies." Comparative Political Studies 25: 332-359.
April 13 Presentations
April 18 Presentations
April 20 Political Science Applications (Experiments and Surveys)
Ansolabehere, Stephen, Shanto Iyengar, Adam Simon, and Nicholas Valentino. 1994. "Does Attack Advertising Demobilize the Electorate?" American Political Science Review 88: 829-838.
And
Wattenberg, Martin P., and Craig Leonard Brains. 1999. "Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer or Mobilizer?" American Political Science Review 93: 891-899.
Or
Lupia, Arthur. 1997. "Who Can Persuade Whom?" University of California, San Diego.
April 25 Presentations
April 27 No Class
May 2 Presentations
May 4 Review and Wrap-up
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