Prof. Diana Richards
1337B Social Science Bldg
624-8302
This course examines how one tests a political hypothesis using data. You will learn about how one tests political or policy ideas, learn some techniques for data analysis, and get a sense of contemporary empirical political research.
The course does not assume previous experience with either computer programming or with statistics. The course requirements include in-class computer labs, in-class active learning exercises related to the readings, take-home problem sets and short (< 1 page) writing assignments, one midterm exam and a final exam. Grading will be weighted as: in-class labs and active learning exercises: 20%, individual take-home assignments: 30%,
midterm: 20%, final: 30%.
The reading for the course is available in a packet at the West Bank Bookstore. In addition, the two books are on reserve in Wilson Library as reference sources. If you miss a lecture or are unclear as to the meaning of a concept covered in class, then I strongly recommend that you read the few pages on that topic in one of the following textbooks:
Bernstein and Dyer, An Introduction to Political Science Methods.
Moore, Statistics: Concepts and Controversies.
The organization of the course is in general to cover the material in a lecture format on Tuesday and to meet in a computer classroom on Thursdays for hands-on learning of the concepts. Three of those Thursdays will consist of active learning sessions where we will examine the reading in detail. For these classes bring a one-page summary of the reading to class that day. Note that both your participation in the computer labs and discussion classes will contribute to your final course grade.
1.1 Lecture: Overview (245 Blegen)
Topics: Empirical research, correlation and causation, dependent and independent variables
Assignment 1 on sampling handed out
1.2 Surveys and Sampling (245 Blegen)
Topics: Random sample, Variations in samples, Census reform
Assignment 1 due
Paulos "A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper"
Schlozman et al, "Gender and Citizen Participation"
Question on Sullivan article handed out.
2.1 Lecture: Measurements (245 Blegen)
Topics: Reliability, Validity, Example of Kinsey Report, Discussion of Sullivan article.
Sullivan et al, "Alternative Conceptualization of Political Tolerance"
Short (< 1 page) written assignment on article due.
2.2 Computer Lab: Introduction to Microcase and Univariate Statistics (170 Anderson)
Topics: Structure of data sets, Descriptive measures, obtaining valid responses in surveys
Assignment 2 on univariate statistics handed out
3.1 Lecture: Examining Correlation with Tables
Topics: crosstables, tables of mean and medians
Assignment 2 due
Assignment 3 on crosstables handed out
3.2 Computer Lab: Correlation Coefficients
Topics: Computing phi, summary of Pearson's r and other correlation coefficients
Assignment 3 due.
Read Licklider, "Consequences of Negotiated Settlements"
Question on Levy article handed out
4.1 Lecture: Tests of Significance and Confidence Intervals
Topics: Chi-squared, examining the confidence interval of our coin toss data
Read Levy et al., "Frequency and Seriousness of War"
Short writing assignment on Levy article.
Read Mock et al, "Political Innumeracy"
4.2 Discussion class: Sullivan et al. (245 Blegen)
Topics: correlation coefficients, measuring ideological constraint
Read Sullivan et al., "Ideological Constraint"
One page summary on article due
5.1 Lecture: Midterm review (245 Blegen)
5.2 Midterm Exam (245 Blegen)
6.1 Lecture: bivariate regression (245 Blegen)
Topics: scatterplot, residuals, regression coefficients and their interpretation, r2., example of swing ratio, seats lost in midterm elections
6.2 Computer lab: Intro to bivariate regression (170 Anderson)
Midterm exams returned
Assignment 4 on bivariate models handed out.
Question on Burns article handed out.
7.1 Lecture: Controlling for variables
Topics: intervening, conditioning, spurious relationships
Read Burns, "Public Consequences of Private Inequality"
Short writing assignment on Burns article.
7.2 Computer lab: Controlling for third variables in bivariate models
Assignment 4 due.
Question on Bledsoe article handed out.
8.1 Lecture: Multivariate regression
Topics: Interpreting the coefficients: example of seats lost in midterm elections (multivariate version), Example of school achievement, Partial r
Read Bledsoe et al, "Residential Context and Racial Solidarity"
Short writing assignment on Bledsoe article.
8.2 Computer lab: Multivariate regression
Topics: Multicollinearity as missing data
Assignment 5 on multivariate models handed out
9.1 Discussion Class: Jacobson
Read Jacobson, "Strategic Politicians"
Bring <1 page summary of Jacobson article to class.
Assignment 5 due.
Question on Ansolabehere article handed out.
9.2 Computer lab: Multivariate regression con't
Topics: Choosing the "best" multivariate model, additional symptoms of multicollinearity
Ansolabehere et al, "Attack Advertising"
Short writing assignment on article due.
Assignment 6 on comparing multivariate models handed out
10.1 Discussion Class: McKuen et al.
Read McKuen et al, "Micropartisanship"
Bring <1 page summary of MacKuen article to class
10.2 Lecture: Review and Wrap-up
Final Examination: Thurs., March 18, 1:30-3:30.
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SUMMER 2001
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FALL 2000
SUMMER 2000
SUMMER 1999
SPRING 1999
WINTER 1999
FALL 1998
SUMMER 1998
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